The Chinese cruise market is set to eclipse just over 5.6 million domestic cruise passengers by 2024, according to conservative estimates based on announced deployment moves by the 2017-2018 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.

A previous target of 4 million cruise passengers by 2020 still remains a question mark, as recent postponements of deployment moves to China by AIDA and Carnival have taken future projected capacity out of the market.

However, major market additions include the Majestic Princess and Norwegian Joy in 2017, the MSC Splendida in 2018, and two pairs of newbuilds coming online after that from Costa Crociere and Star Cruises.

Domestically, China State Shipbuilding Corporation has targeted its first newbuild launch for 2022, followed by another ship in 2023, and recently signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Carnival Corporation.

Expected additional deployment moves from major cruise lines and more rumored local operators will only increase Chinese market capacity, as ship withdrawals and retirements will not have a substantial effect on the market – with those vessels being older and with less capacity.