Institute has published the China Outbound Tourism Index, which will be provided monthly by the members of the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Expert Panel (COTEP).

The experts rated the development in the period July 2012 to June 2013 with an aggregated mean value of Plus 5.0 on a scale between minus 10 and plus 10. Despite the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the COTEP members are optimistic in their forecast for the period July 2013 to June 2014: Plus 6.3 on the same scale is forecasted. The index readings and detailed analyses of the results have been published in the first issue of the new COTRI publication C.O.M.I. China Outbound Market Intelligence.

The China Outbound Tourism Index (COT Index) aims to provide a simple but clear indicator for the analysis and forecast of the development of China’s outbound tourism. The COT Index is based on the insights of the members of the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Expert Panel (COTEP). COTEP members are drawn from the leading experts on China‘s tourism development from within the global tourism industry and regional, national and international organisations and institutions, including academic, commercial and media researchers. COTEP members are based both inside and outside of China.

For the COT Index COTEP members are asked to take into account the development of the number of Chinese outbound travellers, the amount spent by Chinese outbound travellers, the level of support by the governments both in China and in the destinations and the level of commitment of tourism companies and organisations in China and at the destinations. The numerical assessment is done in the form of single entries for the previous and next year on a scale ranging between Minus 10 and Plus 10, Minus 10 representing an extremely negative development, Plus 10 representing an extremely positive development. Of all submitted assessments the mean is calculated. For the index readings published in the first issue of C.O.M.I. China Outbound Market Intelligence, 23 COTEP members from all continents provided their assessments, forecasts and comments.

Only two COTEP members rated the development in the past twelve months negatively, 21 experts saw a positive development, leading to a Plus 5.0 aggregated index value. Both the more negative and the more positive evaluations concentrate first of all on the increased awareness of and the intensified activities for the Chinese tourism source market by the global tourism industry and institutions. However, many experts complain that the insights into the importance of China as an international tourism source market are still not sufficient and not based on enough solid analysis and understanding of the specifics of the market.

The result of a Plus 6.3 development for the period July 2013 – June 2014 is based on a positive forecast of all but one of the 23 COTEP members. Again the increased efforts and revaluation of the market by the global tourism industry and institutions is purported as a reason for optimism, but also the development of the market itself, which is seen as creating new chances for niche products and smaller destinations due to the ongoing sophistication of the demand. The majority of the COTEP members furthermore point to the political support of outbound tourism by the new Chinese government and the implementation of less strict visa regulations in many destinations.