China is set to become the world’s biggest tourist destination within a decade or two—and a major new source of visitors to the rest of the world as well.

  China is emerging as a leader in world tourism, with the flow of tourists both in and out of the vast country increasing at a spectacular rate. It already dominates tourism in Asia—as the most popular destination and the main source of visitors to other countries in the region—but its impact is now also being felt much further afield.

  More foreign friends

  In 2004, 41.8m foreign tourists visited China, up nearly 27% on the previous year, when tourist arrivals were badly hit by the respiratory disease SARS. The rise was big enough to displace Italy from its position of fourth in the World Tourism Organisation (WTO) rankings. The number of Chinese traveling overseas grew even more rapidly last year, up 43% to 29m, according the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA).

  These impressive tourism-sector growth figures are likely to continue in coming years. The WTO predicts that by 2010 China will have overtaken the United States, Spain and France (long the unchallenged leader) as the world’s biggest tourist destination, while also becoming the fourth biggest source of tourists globally. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts that the number of outbound travelers will hit 49m by 2008, 60m by 2010 and 100m by 2015. The WTO predicts that this last number will be achieved a little later—by 2020.

  Come and try our culture

  Western European countries are particularly keen to make the most of their new status and welcome Chinese. The region is one of the few globally that did not enjoy a significant turnaround in 2004 after three years of stagnation in the tourism sector. It is not only the increasing volume of Chinese tourists that make them attractive, but their spending habits. According to a survey by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, an independent market research company, Chinese spend twice as much when traveling abroad than they do when at home. China’s overseas tourists spent some US$25bn in 2004 and the EIU expects this to rise to US$30.5bn by 2008. Most spending is on luxury goods, which, due to high Chinese import tariffs, are among the few things that are cheaper abroad, by an estimated 20-30% in Europe.